FROM THE CHC

Hurricane Information Statements WOCN31 CWHX 021200
Hurricane Noel information statement issued by the canadian
Hurricane centre of Environment Canada at 9.00 AM AST Friday
02 November 2007.


The next statement will be issued by 3.00 PM AST
... Hurricane Noel setting up to be a dangerous storm ...
1. Current position, strength, central pressure and motion
At 9.00 AM ADT... Hurricane Noel was located near latitude 29.6 N
And longitude 74.5 W... About 285 nautical miles or 530 km
Northeast of Freeport Bahamas. Maximum sustained winds are estimated
At 70 knots... 130 km/h... And central pressure at 980 MB. Noel is
Moving north northeast at 20 knots... 37 km/h.

2. Forecast position, central pressure and strength
Date time lat lon MSLP Max wind
ADT MB kts kmh
Nov 02 9.00 AM 29.6N 74.5W 980 70 130 transitioning
Nov 02 9.00 PM 33.3N 72.6W 980 70 130 post-tropical
Nov 03 9.00 AM 37.7N 70.0W 978 70 130 post-tropical
Nov 03 9.00 PM 42.5N 66.9W 972 75 139 post-tropical
Nov 04 9.00 AM 48.4N 62.4W 968 75 139 post-tropical
Nov 04 9.00 PM 52.8N 59.1W 968 65 120 post-tropical
Nov 05 9.00 AM 58.2N 54.7W 970 65 120 post-tropical
Nov 05 9.00 PM 61.4N 52.3W 972 65 120 post-tropical
Nov 06 9.00 AM 66.3N 53.8W 988 35 65 post-tropical
Hurricane Noel is expected to become an intense post-tropical storm
over the next 24 hours. It will track across western Nova Scotia
Saturday night then across the Gulf of St Lawrence on Sunday and
through Labrador Sunday night. Despite being in a post-tropical
Stage it is expected to carry hurricane force winds as it passes.

3. Public weather impacts and warnings summary
Heavy rain high winds and pounding surf are to be expected with
Noel as it passes through Atlantic Canada on the weekend.
The heaviest rain ... 50-70 mm ... Is expected in western Nova
Scotia.
The strongest winds are expected over portions of Nova Scotia ...
Hurricane force gusts to 130 km/h at the coast and 100 km/h inland.
Heavy pounding surf should also be expected along the Atlantic coast
Of Nova Scotia Saturday night and Sunday morning ... With
Significant wave heights of 10 m expected.
Rain and wind warnings have been and will be issued by the Atlantic
storm prediction centre and the Newfoundland and Labrador weather
office and bulletins by those offices should be consulted for details
of the warnings.

4. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary
Hurricane force wind warnings will be issued by the Atlantic storm
prediction centre for southwestern marine areas. Storm and gale
warnings are in effect for all remaining maritime waters.
The Newfoundland and Labrador weather office has gale warnings for
all waters and they may be issuing storm warnings as well for
Saturday.

5. Technical discussion
A. Analysis
We continue to follow nhc guidance in Miami. Nhc declared Noel
To be a hurricane overnight. Our initial position is an interpolation
from the nhc package.
Nhc suggests transition has already begun and this is evident on
satellite imagery with the cloud shield being sheared to the
northeast.
B. Prognostic
Computer models continue to maintain a track towards the northeast.
Consistency between the models from one run to the other
Gives confidence in the track which remains the same as before. All
models indicate that hurricane Noel will go continue to transition
today and Saturday. Dynamic models show that Noel will become a very
large post-tropical storm before moving across the Atlantic regions
on the weekend and on Monday.
C. Public weather
Rainfall amounts could be mitigated by dry air wrapping behind the
storm so 50-70 mm seems sufficient at this point. The bigger concern
is the strength of the wind. As Noel moves over increasingly colder
water this will rapdily decrease the tropical nature. However the
continually strengthening baroclinic environment is being forecast
By most models to offset the tropical weakening.... So we agree with
and follow the nhc assessment of maintaining it as a hurricane force
system.
D. Marine weather
Wind radii are left out because post-tropical storm Noel will be
A large scale baroclinic system when it tracks northeastward
Across the Atlantic regions.
Trapped fetch wave model shows 9m sig waves along the Atlantic
Coast of Nova Scotia.
End roussel/bowyer