09:00am forecast:
"Hurricane force gusts to 140 km/h at the coast from Yarmouth eastward
to the Halifax area."
Saturday, November 3, 2007
Friday, November 2, 2007
Still on track
Hurricane NOEL Public Advisory
000
WTNT31 KNHC 022051
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE NOEL ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
500 PM EDT FRI NOV 02 2007
...NOEL BECOMING A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE...
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA.
INTERESTS ALONG THE U. S. EAST COAST FROM NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD
SHOULD CONSULT STATEMENTS AND WARNINGS ISSUED BY THEIR LOCAL NWS
FORECAST OFFICE. INTERESTS IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD
CONSULT PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTER OF
ENVIRONMENT CANADA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NOEL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 31.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.4 WEST OR ABOUT 450 MILES...
725 KM...WEST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 320 MILES...510 KM...
SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.
NOEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR...AND
IT IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NOEL IS TRANSITIONING TO A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 345
MILES...555 KM. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN SIZE DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM RECONNAISSANCE DATA WAS
980 MB...28.94 INCHES.
NOEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS TO 6 INCHES ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.
REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...31.4 N...72.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB.
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/FRANKLIN
FROM THE CHC
Hurricane Information Statements WOCN31 CWHX 021200
Hurricane Noel information statement issued by the canadian
Hurricane centre of Environment Canada at 9.00 AM AST Friday
02 November 2007.
The next statement will be issued by 3.00 PM AST
... Hurricane Noel setting up to be a dangerous storm ...
1. Current position, strength, central pressure and motion
At 9.00 AM ADT... Hurricane Noel was located near latitude 29.6 N
And longitude 74.5 W... About 285 nautical miles or 530 km
Northeast of Freeport Bahamas. Maximum sustained winds are estimated
At 70 knots... 130 km/h... And central pressure at 980 MB. Noel is
Moving north northeast at 20 knots... 37 km/h.
2. Forecast position, central pressure and strength
Date time lat lon MSLP Max wind
ADT MB kts kmh
Nov 02 9.00 AM 29.6N 74.5W 980 70 130 transitioning
Nov 02 9.00 PM 33.3N 72.6W 980 70 130 post-tropical
Nov 03 9.00 AM 37.7N 70.0W 978 70 130 post-tropical
Nov 03 9.00 PM 42.5N 66.9W 972 75 139 post-tropical
Nov 04 9.00 AM 48.4N 62.4W 968 75 139 post-tropical
Nov 04 9.00 PM 52.8N 59.1W 968 65 120 post-tropical
Nov 05 9.00 AM 58.2N 54.7W 970 65 120 post-tropical
Nov 05 9.00 PM 61.4N 52.3W 972 65 120 post-tropical
Nov 06 9.00 AM 66.3N 53.8W 988 35 65 post-tropical
Hurricane Noel is expected to become an intense post-tropical storm
over the next 24 hours. It will track across western Nova Scotia
Saturday night then across the Gulf of St Lawrence on Sunday and
through Labrador Sunday night. Despite being in a post-tropical
Stage it is expected to carry hurricane force winds as it passes.
3. Public weather impacts and warnings summary
Heavy rain high winds and pounding surf are to be expected with
Noel as it passes through Atlantic Canada on the weekend.
The heaviest rain ... 50-70 mm ... Is expected in western Nova
Scotia.
The strongest winds are expected over portions of Nova Scotia ...
Hurricane force gusts to 130 km/h at the coast and 100 km/h inland.
Heavy pounding surf should also be expected along the Atlantic coast
Of Nova Scotia Saturday night and Sunday morning ... With
Significant wave heights of 10 m expected.
Rain and wind warnings have been and will be issued by the Atlantic
storm prediction centre and the Newfoundland and Labrador weather
office and bulletins by those offices should be consulted for details
of the warnings.
4. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary
Hurricane force wind warnings will be issued by the Atlantic storm
prediction centre for southwestern marine areas. Storm and gale
warnings are in effect for all remaining maritime waters.
The Newfoundland and Labrador weather office has gale warnings for
all waters and they may be issuing storm warnings as well for
Saturday.
5. Technical discussion
A. Analysis
We continue to follow nhc guidance in Miami. Nhc declared Noel
To be a hurricane overnight. Our initial position is an interpolation
from the nhc package.
Nhc suggests transition has already begun and this is evident on
satellite imagery with the cloud shield being sheared to the
northeast.
B. Prognostic
Computer models continue to maintain a track towards the northeast.
Consistency between the models from one run to the other
Gives confidence in the track which remains the same as before. All
models indicate that hurricane Noel will go continue to transition
today and Saturday. Dynamic models show that Noel will become a very
large post-tropical storm before moving across the Atlantic regions
on the weekend and on Monday.
C. Public weather
Rainfall amounts could be mitigated by dry air wrapping behind the
storm so 50-70 mm seems sufficient at this point. The bigger concern
is the strength of the wind. As Noel moves over increasingly colder
water this will rapdily decrease the tropical nature. However the
continually strengthening baroclinic environment is being forecast
By most models to offset the tropical weakening.... So we agree with
and follow the nhc assessment of maintaining it as a hurricane force
system.
D. Marine weather
Wind radii are left out because post-tropical storm Noel will be
A large scale baroclinic system when it tracks northeastward
Across the Atlantic regions.
Trapped fetch wave model shows 9m sig waves along the Atlantic
Coast of Nova Scotia.
End roussel/bowyer
Hurricane Noel information statement issued by the canadian
Hurricane centre of Environment Canada at 9.00 AM AST Friday
02 November 2007.
The next statement will be issued by 3.00 PM AST
... Hurricane Noel setting up to be a dangerous storm ...
1. Current position, strength, central pressure and motion
At 9.00 AM ADT... Hurricane Noel was located near latitude 29.6 N
And longitude 74.5 W... About 285 nautical miles or 530 km
Northeast of Freeport Bahamas. Maximum sustained winds are estimated
At 70 knots... 130 km/h... And central pressure at 980 MB. Noel is
Moving north northeast at 20 knots... 37 km/h.
2. Forecast position, central pressure and strength
Date time lat lon MSLP Max wind
ADT MB kts kmh
Nov 02 9.00 AM 29.6N 74.5W 980 70 130 transitioning
Nov 02 9.00 PM 33.3N 72.6W 980 70 130 post-tropical
Nov 03 9.00 AM 37.7N 70.0W 978 70 130 post-tropical
Nov 03 9.00 PM 42.5N 66.9W 972 75 139 post-tropical
Nov 04 9.00 AM 48.4N 62.4W 968 75 139 post-tropical
Nov 04 9.00 PM 52.8N 59.1W 968 65 120 post-tropical
Nov 05 9.00 AM 58.2N 54.7W 970 65 120 post-tropical
Nov 05 9.00 PM 61.4N 52.3W 972 65 120 post-tropical
Nov 06 9.00 AM 66.3N 53.8W 988 35 65 post-tropical
Hurricane Noel is expected to become an intense post-tropical storm
over the next 24 hours. It will track across western Nova Scotia
Saturday night then across the Gulf of St Lawrence on Sunday and
through Labrador Sunday night. Despite being in a post-tropical
Stage it is expected to carry hurricane force winds as it passes.
3. Public weather impacts and warnings summary
Heavy rain high winds and pounding surf are to be expected with
Noel as it passes through Atlantic Canada on the weekend.
The heaviest rain ... 50-70 mm ... Is expected in western Nova
Scotia.
The strongest winds are expected over portions of Nova Scotia ...
Hurricane force gusts to 130 km/h at the coast and 100 km/h inland.
Heavy pounding surf should also be expected along the Atlantic coast
Of Nova Scotia Saturday night and Sunday morning ... With
Significant wave heights of 10 m expected.
Rain and wind warnings have been and will be issued by the Atlantic
storm prediction centre and the Newfoundland and Labrador weather
office and bulletins by those offices should be consulted for details
of the warnings.
4. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary
Hurricane force wind warnings will be issued by the Atlantic storm
prediction centre for southwestern marine areas. Storm and gale
warnings are in effect for all remaining maritime waters.
The Newfoundland and Labrador weather office has gale warnings for
all waters and they may be issuing storm warnings as well for
Saturday.
5. Technical discussion
A. Analysis
We continue to follow nhc guidance in Miami. Nhc declared Noel
To be a hurricane overnight. Our initial position is an interpolation
from the nhc package.
Nhc suggests transition has already begun and this is evident on
satellite imagery with the cloud shield being sheared to the
northeast.
B. Prognostic
Computer models continue to maintain a track towards the northeast.
Consistency between the models from one run to the other
Gives confidence in the track which remains the same as before. All
models indicate that hurricane Noel will go continue to transition
today and Saturday. Dynamic models show that Noel will become a very
large post-tropical storm before moving across the Atlantic regions
on the weekend and on Monday.
C. Public weather
Rainfall amounts could be mitigated by dry air wrapping behind the
storm so 50-70 mm seems sufficient at this point. The bigger concern
is the strength of the wind. As Noel moves over increasingly colder
water this will rapdily decrease the tropical nature. However the
continually strengthening baroclinic environment is being forecast
By most models to offset the tropical weakening.... So we agree with
and follow the nhc assessment of maintaining it as a hurricane force
system.
D. Marine weather
Wind radii are left out because post-tropical storm Noel will be
A large scale baroclinic system when it tracks northeastward
Across the Atlantic regions.
Trapped fetch wave model shows 9m sig waves along the Atlantic
Coast of Nova Scotia.
End roussel/bowyer
From Jeff Masters at www.Wunderground.com
Posted by: JeffMasters, 9:58 AM EDT on November 02, 2007
Hurricane Noel pulled off a surprising burst of intensification last night despite 30 knots of wind shear. The storm's pressure dropped from 993 mb to 981 mb in just a few hours, and the winds cranked up to 80 mph. Noel is the first November hurricane in the Atlantic since Hurricane Michelle of 2001. Fortunately, Noel's intensification burst came after the storm had cleared the Bahama Islands, and wind damage was relatively minor in the islands. The latest Hurricane Hunter eye report at 8am EDT found the pressure holding steady at 981 mb, and weaker surface winds, 70-75 mph.
Noel the hurricane becomes Noel the 'NoreasterNoel will brush Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, today, bringing winds near tropical storm force and a few rain bands. Strong northerly winds are expected to cause coastal flooding inside Pamlico Sound, with water levels 4-6 feet above normal. Winds at the Diamond Shoals buoy off the coast of Cape Hatteras were sustained at 40 mph, gusting to 47 mph, at 10am EDT. Seas were 15 feet, and 10-12 foot breakers are expected along the Outer Banks today. Noel has expanded significantly in size over the past 24 hours, and is bringing tropical storm force winds over a huge area of ocean (Figure 1). As Noel approaches New England on Saturday, the hurricane will make the transition to a powerful 'Noreaster, as cold air spills into the storm from the northwest. Noel's wind field is expected to expand farther, and the storm will maintain its intensity. Sustained winds of tropical storm force (39 mph) are likely along eastern Long Island and the coasts of Rhode Island, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Maine, and Nova Scotia. The latest (06Z) runs of the GFDL and HWRF models intensify Noel to a 954 mb 'Noreaster, and bring sustained winds of hurricane force (75 mph) to Cape Cod and Nantucket. The ECMWF and NOGAPS models also bring Noel quite close to Cape Cod, and foresee a landfall near the Maine/Nova Scotia border. The UKMET and GFS models are farther east, bringing Noel to the western or central coast of Nova Scotia. Due to the wide wind field of Noel, both Massachusetts and Nova Scotia may see hurricane force winds. Due to the cold air invading Noel from the west, the western side of the storm will be the rainy side, and coastal Massachusetts can expect 2-6 inches of rain. About 1-3 inches are likely for Nova Scotia.
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=852&tstamp=200711
Hurricane Noel pulled off a surprising burst of intensification last night despite 30 knots of wind shear. The storm's pressure dropped from 993 mb to 981 mb in just a few hours, and the winds cranked up to 80 mph. Noel is the first November hurricane in the Atlantic since Hurricane Michelle of 2001. Fortunately, Noel's intensification burst came after the storm had cleared the Bahama Islands, and wind damage was relatively minor in the islands. The latest Hurricane Hunter eye report at 8am EDT found the pressure holding steady at 981 mb, and weaker surface winds, 70-75 mph.
Noel the hurricane becomes Noel the 'NoreasterNoel will brush Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, today, bringing winds near tropical storm force and a few rain bands. Strong northerly winds are expected to cause coastal flooding inside Pamlico Sound, with water levels 4-6 feet above normal. Winds at the Diamond Shoals buoy off the coast of Cape Hatteras were sustained at 40 mph, gusting to 47 mph, at 10am EDT. Seas were 15 feet, and 10-12 foot breakers are expected along the Outer Banks today. Noel has expanded significantly in size over the past 24 hours, and is bringing tropical storm force winds over a huge area of ocean (Figure 1). As Noel approaches New England on Saturday, the hurricane will make the transition to a powerful 'Noreaster, as cold air spills into the storm from the northwest. Noel's wind field is expected to expand farther, and the storm will maintain its intensity. Sustained winds of tropical storm force (39 mph) are likely along eastern Long Island and the coasts of Rhode Island, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Maine, and Nova Scotia. The latest (06Z) runs of the GFDL and HWRF models intensify Noel to a 954 mb 'Noreaster, and bring sustained winds of hurricane force (75 mph) to Cape Cod and Nantucket. The ECMWF and NOGAPS models also bring Noel quite close to Cape Cod, and foresee a landfall near the Maine/Nova Scotia border. The UKMET and GFS models are farther east, bringing Noel to the western or central coast of Nova Scotia. Due to the wide wind field of Noel, both Massachusetts and Nova Scotia may see hurricane force winds. Due to the cold air invading Noel from the west, the western side of the storm will be the rainy side, and coastal Massachusetts can expect 2-6 inches of rain. About 1-3 inches are likely for Nova Scotia.
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=852&tstamp=200711
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